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Wishful-thinking effects, in which people overestimate the likelihood of an event because of its desirability, are relatively rare. Overprecision is the excessive confidence that one knows the truth.

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For reviews, see Harvey or Hoffrage This paradigm, while useful, cannot distinguish overestimation from overprecision; they are one and the same in these item-confidence judgments. After making a series of item-confidence judgments, if people try to estimate the number of items they got right, they do not tend to systematically overestimate their scores.

The average of their item-confidence judgments exceeds the count of items they claim to have gotten right. Overplacement is perhaps the most prominent manifestation of the overconfidence effect. Overplacement is a judgment of your performance compared to another. This subsection of overconfidence occurs when people believe themselves to be better than others, or "better-than-average". Overplacement more often occurs on simple tasks, ones we believe are easy to accomplish successfully.

One explanation for this theory is its ability to self-enhance. For difficult tasks, the effect reverses itself and people believe they are worse than others. Some researchers have claimed that people think good things are more likely to happen to them than to others, whereas bad events were less likely to happen to them than to others. People think common events such as living past 70 are more likely to happen to them than to others, and rare events such as living past are less likely to happen to them than to others.

Taylor and Brown have argued that people cling to overly positive beliefs about themselves, illusions of control, and beliefs in false superiority, because it helps them cope and thrive. Overconfidence has been called the most "pervasive and potentially catastrophic" of all the cognitive biases to which human beings fall victim.

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Strikes, lawsuits, and wars could arise from overplacement. If plaintiffs and defendants were prone to believe that they were more deserving, fair, and righteous than their legal opponents, that could help account for the persistence of inefficient enduring legal disputes. Overprecision could have important implications for investing behavior and stock market trading. Because Bayesians cannot agree to disagree, [30] classical finance theory has trouble explaining why, if stock market traders are fully rational Bayesians, there is so much trading in the stock market.

Overprecision might be one answer. Oskamp tested groups of clinical psychologists and psychology students on a multiple-choice task in which they drew conclusions from a case study. This allowed confidence to be compared against accuracy. Hence this experiment demonstrated overconfidence which increased as the subjects had more information to base their judgment on. Even if there is no general tendency toward overconfidence, social dynamics and adverse selection could conceivably promote it. For instance, those most likely to have the courage to start a new business are those who most overplace their abilities relative to those of other potential entrants.

And if voters find confident leaders more credible, then contenders for leadership learn that they should express more confidence than their opponents in order to win election. Overconfidence can be beneficial to individual self-esteem as well as giving an individual the will to succeed in their desired goal. Just believing in oneself may give one the will to take one's endeavours further than those who do not.

Very high levels of core self-evaluations , a stable personality trait composed of locus of control , neuroticism , self-efficacy , and self-esteem , [35] may lead to the overconfidence effect. People who have high core self-evaluations will think positively of themselves and be confident in their own abilities, [35] although extremely high levels of core self-evaluations may cause an individual to be more confident than is warranted.

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. You will have to struggle to remind yourself that they may be in the grip of an illusion. Confidence Dunning—Kruger effect False-consensus effect Hard—easy effect Hindsight bias Heuristics in judgment and decision making Impostor syndrome List of cognitive biases Misplaced loyalty Optimism bias Political midlife crisis Depressive realism. The Journal of General Psychology. Archived from the original on Social and Personality Psychology Compass. The American Journal of Psychology. The state of the art to ". Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.

Ceilings, floors, and imperfect calibration". Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. Dominic Johnson's attack on the war puzzle is novel, convincing, and appealing. Steeped in sound biology and a detailed account of key well-documented conflicts, "Overconfidence and War" marks an important advance in the long-anticipated integration of political science and evolutionary theory. You may have already requested this item.

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